My method · Dubai and Abu Dhabi
Where my numbers come from.
Every view I give you starts with official Dubai property data. That means what actually sold, what actually rented and how far a building has actually been built. Here you can see where that data comes from, what it can and cannot tell you, and how to read the numbers in my work.
The sources
Official data first, adverts last.
I work from government registers in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Each one answers some questions well and others not at all. So here is what each source shows, and where it stops.
Source
What it shows
What it cannot show
Registered sales
Dubai Land Department
What it shows
What a home actually sold for, its size and the date the sale was registered.
What it cannot show
What owners who never sold would accept. The date is when the sale was registered, not when it was agreed.
Tenancy contracts (Ejari)
Dubai Land Department
What it shows
The rent a tenant actually signed for, and when the contract started.
What it cannot show
Which flats are empty today. It shows what was signed, and some contracts are registered weeks late.
Project register
Dubai Land Department
What it shows
How far a project has actually been built, and its filed completion date.
What it cannot show
The day you get the keys. It also does not always split a project by tower.
Smart Rental Index
Dubai Land Department
What it shows
The rent band a home sits in, and whether a rent rise is allowed at renewal.
What it cannot show
What one particular flat will rent for next month.
Sales, rents and build progress
Abu Dhabi Real Estate Centre
What it shows
Registered sales and rents across Abu Dhabi, and how far each project has been built.
What it cannot show
One unit from sale to sale, because unit numbers are not published.
Population
Dubai Statistics Center
What it shows
How many people live in an area, and how that is changing.
What it cannot show
Exact community lines. Its areas do not always match a master plan.
Online property adverts
Property portals
What it shows
What owners are asking, and how many homes are on offer.
What it cannot show
What was agreed. What owners ask is not what buyers pay, and one home can be listed many times.
Online adverts are the only source here that is not official. I use them for asking prices and supply, never to set a value.
How to read my numbers
Four labels tell you what each number is.
Every figure in my work fits one of four labels. The label tells you where the number came from and how much weight it can carry.
Counted
Straight from official data, with no arithmetic. For example, how many sales a building registered in a year.
Calculated
My arithmetic on official data, such as a median price or a share of homes. You could redo it from the same data.
Estimate
Depends on an assumption, such as a future rent. I always mark it, and I state the assumption.
My reading
My view of why something is happening. It always comes with a caveat, so you can weigh it yourself.
The checks I run
The checks behind every figure.
Raw data needs care before it means anything. These are the checks I run. The method notes in each article show how I applied them.
- Like for like. Same building, bedrooms and size, so you compare the same kind of home.
- First sales apart from resales. Launch prices and resale prices tell different stories, so I keep them apart.
- Clock stopped at a fixed date. Registrations can arrive weeks late. So I set a cut-off date and show it.
- Empty homes counted in. When I measure how long homes take to rent, homes still waiting count too. So the answer is not flattered.
- Repeat adverts removed. One home listed by several agents counts once.
- Sample sizes stated. I say how many sales or contracts sit behind each figure. When there are too few, I say so and give a range.
- Rebuilt from the raw data. I rebuild headline figures from the underlying rows and test them more than one way.
What I will not do
Three things I will not do.
These hold on every report, every valuation and every article.
Forecast a single price.
Nobody knows next year’s price. I show a range and the facts that would move it.
Present an estimate as a fact.
If a number rests on an assumption, you see the label and the assumption.
Hide a weak result.
If the data is thin or the answer is no, I say so in plain words.
Questions
Common questions about my method.
Where does Fahad Al Kuwari get his property data?
He works from official data. In Dubai that means registered sales and tenancy contracts (Ejari) from the Dubai Land Department, plus its project register and Smart Rental Index. In Abu Dhabi he uses the public data of the Abu Dhabi Real Estate Centre. He uses online adverts for asking prices only.
Why does he not value homes from asking prices?
Owners set asking prices. Buyers decide what is paid. So Fahad sets values from what similar homes actually sold for, in the same building where he can. He uses adverts only to see how many homes are on offer and what owners are asking.
What do counted, calculated, estimate and my reading mean?
They are the four labels Fahad uses on his numbers. Counted comes straight from official data. Calculated is his arithmetic on that data. Estimate depends on an assumption, which he always states. My reading is his view of why something is happening, and it always comes with a caveat.
Can tenancy contracts show how many flats are empty?
No. Tenancy contracts show what was signed, not which flats stand empty today. Some are also registered weeks late. So when Fahad measures how long homes take to rent, he stops the clock at a fixed date. He also counts homes still waiting, so the result is not flattered.
See it in use
See the method at work.
My Market Insights articles show their sources and their checks, so you can test my thinking first. Then tell me what you are weighing. You will hear back from me personally.