The JVC supply pipeline holds 35,120 homes, and half of them have barely started

A buyer sent me a brochure last month. Handover: fourth quarter 2026. She had already paid two instalments.

I looked the project up on the Dubai Land Department register. It was 38% built.

Nobody had lied to her. Someone typed that date long before anyone poured concrete, and nobody went back to change it. But she was planning rent, school fees and a move around a date the building could not meet.

Then she asked me a fair question. How many other homes are coming to JVC?

I could not answer it from anything published. So I counted them.

The JVC supply pipeline on the Dubai Land Department register holds 139 active projects and 35,120 homes. Almost half of those homes sit in projects less than a fifth built.

Add what already stands and JVC is heading for about 83,000 homes. It is a little over halfway there.

What you will be able to do after reading this

Three things, and none of them needs a subscription.

Check any JVC project yourself, in about ten minutes, and see how far it really is from finished.

Judge a handover date by holding it against a build percentage, instead of taking it on trust.

Size your competition before you buy or sell, using a number you can verify rather than one you were handed.

I show every source and every step, so you can repeat the whole thing.

Why nobody can tell you the JVC supply pipeline

What you actually find when you look

Try to find this number and you will hit three kinds of answer. None of them is the pipeline.

You find total stock. Propsearch, a property portal, lists 421 buildings and 96,586 homes for JVC. That is what already stands, not what is coming. It is 2.8 times our pipeline figure. Mix the two up and you will price a deal badly.

You find a listings count. Off-Plan Dubai, a listings site, advertises “131 live launches”. That counts adverts on their own website. Two agents listing one tower can produce two launches.

You find nothing at all. D&B Properties, a brokerage, publishes a long JVC area guide. It says “over 300 buildings” and gives no pipeline number.

All three are portal or broker sources, so treat them as directional. None is wrong on its own terms. They simply answer different questions.

There is no official figure

The Land Department gives you the register. It does not add up a total for any one community.

So if you want that number, somebody has to build it. That is what the rest of this article does, and it shows the method so you can check it.

What the DLD project registry actually holds

How the register works

Every developer who sells off-plan must file the project first. The register then shows how far each one has come. That figure moves as the building goes up.

So the register is not a marketing list. It is a record.

Three numbers, one district

The Land Department calls this district Al Barsha South Fourth. That district is JVC. For it, the register holds 541 projects ever registered:

Those 139 active projects hold 35,120 homes.

How I sized them

I sized each project from its registered unit schedule, or from the homes already sold off-plan, whichever was higher.

Six projects had neither. I sized those at the median of 195 homes each. That adds 1,170 estimated homes, or 3.3% of the total, and I flag it everywhere it appears.

Take those six out entirely and the pipeline is 33,950 homes. The argument does not change.

A second source, and it agrees

Property Monitor counts 35,508 homes

You should be suspicious of a number that only one person has produced. So I checked it against a second source.

Property Monitor is the data firm most Dubai valuers and lenders rely on. Its JVC page shows 36,389 units under construction.

That figure includes offices and shops. Strip those out and you get 35,508 homes.

Our register count is 35,120. The gap is 388 homes, or 1.1%.

One honest caveat

These two counts are not fully independent. I sized 133 of our 139 projects from Property Monitor lists or from off-plan sales. So the home counts share a source.

The project list is independent, though. Ours comes from the register. Property Monitor picks its own buildings. Two routes, almost the same answer.

That is as close to a confirmed figure as this market offers.

How big will JVC actually get?

About 83,000 homes

The pipeline is only half the question. The other half is what already stands.

Property Monitor counts 48,749 units ready in JVC today. Strip out offices and shops again and that is 47,823 homes, of which 44,210 are apartments.

Now add the two together.

JVC homes	Count	Share
Already standing	47,823	57.4%
Under construction	35,508	42.6%
Total once today’s pipeline finishes	83,331	100%

Use the register’s pipeline figure instead of Property Monitor’s and the total lands at 82,943. Either way, JVC is heading for roughly 83,000 homes.

The community is 57% built

That is the number I would want if I were buying here.

JVC is not a finished place with some infill left. It is a little over halfway through construction. Two homes in every five that will ever exist here are still going up.

That shapes everything: how long the cranes stay, when the roads and retail catch up, and how much competition your unit meets when you come to let it or sell it.

And 83,000 is still a floor

Two things push the real total higher.

First, the residue. Thousands of homes match no registered project, and I come back to that later in this article.

Second, new launches. Every project registered from tomorrow adds to the pipeline. JVC has plenty of land left.

So treat 83,000 as the number JVC reaches if nothing new is ever launched. It will not stop there.

JVC construction progress across the whole register

Where the weight sits

Counting the homes is the easy half. The useful half is knowing how far along they are.

Construction progress	Projects	Homes	Share
Under 20% built	61	16,807	47.9%
20% to under 50%	30	7,165	20.4%
50% to under 80%	29	6,656	19.0%
80% or more	19	4,492	12.8%
Total	139	35,120	100%

Almost half the JVC units under construction sit in projects less than a fifth built.

The median active project is 22.4% complete. Seventy seven of the 139 are under 30%.

Of the 16,807 homes in the bottom band, 780 are estimates. Boundaries here are strict, so a project sitting at exactly 20.0% falls in the 20% to 50% band.

Sixteen projects at zero

At the very bottom, 16 projects sit at 0% progress and hold 3,462 homes.

Six of them have never sold a single home off-plan. They are registrations, not building sites.

A form in a file is not a building. That gap is most of what separates buying off-plan from buying ready.

Only a third is more than half done

Here is the number I keep coming back to. Add the two top bands together. Only 11,148 homes, or 31.7% of the pipeline, sit in projects more than half built.

The rest is earlier than that. Hold on to it, because the next part runs straight into it.

Dubai off-plan handover delays, and why schedules run ahead

What Property Monitor’s schedule expects

Property Monitor runs its own delivery schedule for JVC. It puts 11,892 homes into 2027 and 10,975 into 2028.

That is 22,867 homes across two years, or 65.1% of the whole pipeline.

The problem with that

Now put the schedule next to the concrete.

Property Monitor expects 11,892 homes in 2027 alone. The register says only 11,148 homes in all of JVC are more than half built today.

So the 2027 schedule on its own is bigger than every home in the community that has passed the halfway mark. Some of those 2027 homes must therefore come from projects that are less than half finished right now.

That is not impossible. But it is a demanding assumption, and it is worth knowing you are making it.

Why schedules and concrete disagree

The two sources are not contradicting each other by accident. They measure different things.

A handover year is a promise. Someone wrote it at launch, and almost nobody revisits it. Construction progress is a measurement. It moves when the building moves.

So schedules pull homes forward and progress does not.

This is normal, and the professionals price it in

Nobody here is being dishonest. Schedules slip everywhere, and the market knows.

Cavendish Maxwell put 47,000 Dubai homes on its schedule for late 2026. Then it said 14,000 to 23,500 will really finish. So a RICS-regulated firm cut 50% to 70% off its own schedule, in public, before the half even began.

So the lesson is simple. A handover date is a sales tool. A build percentage is a measurement. Only one of them is worth betting on.

I once ran this check on a single tower. It had three different handover dates in print.

I am not going to put my own numbers on delivery years here. That model needs its own piece.

If you are buying off-plan in JVC this year, spend ten minutes looking up your project’s construction percentage. Then compare it with the date on the brochure. It is one of the questions worth asking before any off-plan purchase.

What the name matching misses

Why 35,120 is a floor

This part cuts against my own headline, so it belongs here rather than at the end.

Property Monitor also keeps a second JVC list, of buildings. That one holds 627 blocks of flats and 91,028 homes.

The Land Department names projects. Property Monitor names towers. One project can be three towers. And a tower often ends up with a name the developer picked later.

So the two lists have to be matched by name. Name matching is never clean.

I ran three matching rules over both lists, from strict to loose. The homes that cannot be tied to any registered project come out between about 18,000 and about 33,000, across 170 to 273 buildings. It depends entirely on how strictly you match.

My earlier supply work used a fourth rule. It landed on 226 buildings and 32,520 homes, inside that range. I am publishing the range rather than that single figure, because a single figure implies a precision the matching does not have.

Property Monitor does not agree with itself

Now the part that surprised me.

Property Monitor’s own totals are 36,389 under construction and 48,749 ready. Strip out offices and shops and that is 83,331 homes.

Its own building list holds 91,028.

So one provider’s two products differ by 7,697 homes, or 9.2%. That gap is larger than the gap between Property Monitor and the Land Department.

So the matching problem is not something my rules created. It sits inside one source, on its own.

What the residue is, and is not

That residue is not 33,000 extra homes in the pipeline. It holds finished towers whose names never lined up. It also holds buildings that a commercial list carries and the register does not.

So it cuts both ways.

What it rules out is precision. Two sources describe the same square kilometre and disagree by tens of thousands of homes. No amount of matching closes that gap.

That is why 35,120 is what the register can prove, and the real figure is higher.

What this means for you

The numbers are only useful if they change something. Here is what they change, whether you are buying, holding or selling.

If you are buying: know the size of your competition

One day you will sell or let that home. Your competition is every other home landing near you.

That is 35,120 homes still to come, into a community of 83,000. Price your exit against the real figure, not the smaller ones that float around.

If you already own here: the supply is not behind you

More than four in ten JVC homes have not been built yet. So the pressure on rents and resale prices from new stock is not a past event.

Check what is going up within walking distance, not just across the community. A tower surrounded by five near-finished projects faces a different year to one surrounded by empty plots.

If you are selling: timing is a construction question

Buyers compare your home against what else is available. That set grows every time a nearby project finishes.

So look up the build percentages around you before you set a price or a date.

Treat your handover date as a starting point

Someone wrote the brochure date before anyone broke ground. The register percentage comes from this quarter.

So check the register before you sign. If the date says months and the percentage says years, believe the percentage.

Ask what your yield assumption depends on

A home that lands in a crowded year rents out slower, and for less, than one that lands in a quiet year.

You cannot judge that from a schedule alone. You need to know how far the competition has actually come.

The right discount is delay, not cancellation

JVC’s cancellation rate looks alarming at 27.5%. But almost all of those failures happened before 2015.

The modern risk is different. Projects here stall; they rarely vanish. So underwrite a wait, not a loss.

What that looks like in practice

Go back to the buyer with the brochure. Her project is 38% built and the date says this year.

Here is the arithmetic she can now do. Roughly a third of a building is done. Two thirds are not. Nobody finishes two thirds of a tower in four months.

So she stops planning around this year. She budgets for rent she did not expect to pay. Then she asks her developer one question, in writing: what is the current construction percentage, and what date does that support?

She may not get a better date. But she stops being surprised. And a buyer who is not surprised negotiates better than one who is.

How to check any pipeline number in ten minutes

The method is not special. It works on any community and any published figure.

Ask where it came from. A register records what developers file. A portal counts what agents advertise. A schedule records what someone promised. They answer different questions.

Ask who publishes it. If you cannot name the operator, the method or the update date, do not build a decision on it. That test alone removes most of what circulates.

Ask whether it is stock or pipeline. JVC has roughly 96,586 homes standing and 35,120 coming. Confusing those two is the most common error in this market.

Ask what did not match. Every reconciliation leaves a residue. If nobody tells you how big theirs is, they have not done one.

I have run this on Motor City’s office pipeline and across the Dubai office market as a whole. The longer version, applied to one project rather than a district, is how I review real estate projects.

What could make me wrong

The register has no memory. It shows today’s construction figure and nothing before it. So I cannot test how fast any project has really moved.

The two big counts share data. I sized most projects from Property Monitor. That makes the 1.1% agreement a partial check, not a full one.

The residue is a range because I could not close it. Three rules gave three answers. I have given you the spread rather than the one I liked best.

Six project sizes are estimates. They carry the median of 195 homes each, 1,170 in total. Remove them and the pipeline is 33,950 homes.

My boundaries moved a small number. My earlier supply work counted projects at exactly 20.0% inside the “under 20%” band. This article does not. That convention shifts the bottom band by two projects.

I removed a source while writing this. An earlier draft leaned on a public handover tracker with no named publisher and no stated method. I could not tell you who runs it, so I took it out and rebuilt the article on the register, Property Monitor and Cavendish Maxwell. Every figure here now comes from a source I can name.

Frequently asked questions

I am Fahad Al Kuwari, a buyer’s consultant in Dubai. I publish what the registers say, and I show the method, so you can run the same check yourself.

I also publish it when I get something wrong. You can see that in the JVC property market article.

Weighing up a JVC purchase? Read the rest of my market analysis at fahadalkuwari.com.