Dubai Hills Estate property prices 2026: the index peaked in March, and the raw median overstates the fall

Dubai Hills Estate property prices 2026 in one line: apartment resale prices peaked in March 2026. By August, they sat 5.7 percent lower on a like-for-like basis. I built this figure from 3,072 resales registered with the Dubai Land Department (DLD).

However, the simple median price per square foot fell further, by 8.0 percent. Most of the extra drop is not price. Instead, it comes from a change in which homes sold. Over twelve months, prices are about flat.

Key facts at a glance

What you will get from this guide

First, you will see the real size of the fall and why it happened. Second, you will see which homes fell, which held, and how sales and listings moved. Third, you will see where 22 completed buildings sit against the estate average. Next, you will learn a five-minute check for any asking price and what the next two years may bring. Finally, you will get clear steps for buyers and sellers.

Dubai Hills Estate property prices 2026: the short answer

I built a price index from DLD sales, as published on DXB Interact. It covers apartment resales only. In addition, it compares like with like: the same building, the same bedroom count and the same size.

What the Dubai Hills price index shows

Here are the results, with March 2026 set to 100.

Reading	Index result	Likely range (95%)
August 2026 vs March 2026 peak	5.7% lower	2.4% to 8.8% lower
August 2026 vs August 2025	1.0% lower	4.4% lower to 2.6% higher
August 2026 vs February 2026	3.7% lower	0.7% to 6.7% lower
March 2026 vs August 2024	16.5% higher	11.9% to 21.4% higher

So the market did turn. The whole range for the fall since March sits below zero, so that fall is real. By contrast, the yearly range crosses zero. That is why I call the yearly change flat.

How much did Dubai Hills prices rise before the peak?

The rise matters too. Prices climbed 16.5 percent from August 2024 to March 2026. Since then, the fall has given back about two fifths of that climb. In other words, prices in August 2026 still sat well above their August 2024 level.

Dubai Hills apartment prices: why headlines show a bigger fall

Many reports quote a median. That number is easy to find, but it mixes two stories.

What a raw median measures

A median is the middle sale in a month. It moves when prices move. However, it also moves when a different kind of home sells. For example, a month with more small flats will show a different median, even if no price changed.

What changed in the sales mix

That is exactly what happened here. I compared sales in March 2026 (n 64) with August 2026 (n 70), after the filters described below.

As a result, the median price per square foot went from AED 2,476 to AED 2,279. That is the 8.0 percent fall. Once the index strips out the mix, the fall is 5.7 percent.

How much of the fall is price?

The chart below splits the change into parts. It uses the average on a log scale, because only that average splits exactly. On that basis, the typical sale fell 9.9 points.

What this means for owners and buyers

A headline that says “down 8 percent” is not wrong. Still, it mixes price with mix. So if you own a two-bedroom flat, the price story is the one that applies to you.

For buyers, the lesson is similar. Compare like with like before you judge timing. My guide to the best time to buy property in Dubai covers the wider timing question. If you are weighing ownership against renting, read rent vs buy in Dubai.

Why Dubai Hills prices fell in 2026

Three forces hit at once. The first was a shock. On my reading, the other two turned it into a lasting fall.

The war shock in March

On 28 February 2026, Israel and the US launched joint air strikes on Tehran, as Al Jazeera reported. Iran then struck Gulf states. On 16 March, a drone hit a fuel tank near Dubai International Airport, and the airport suspended flights for a time.

The timing points to the war. Buyers stepped back right away. In Dubai Hills Estate, individual resales of all property types fell from 179 in February to 95 in March. Across Dubai, ValuStrat reported values 10.2 percent below February by August 2026.

Before the war, Fitch already expected UAE real estate prices to correct by up to 15 percent over the second half of 2025 and 2026. On 2 April 2026, it said the conflict would bring “a larger correction than forecast”.

Rents dropped sharply

Rents fell hard at the same time. On my lease records, new apartment leases in Dubai Hills signed in August 2026 were about 19 percent cheaper than in March, like for like. Rents will get their own article. For sales, the point is simple: when the rent covers less of the price, investors offer less.

A heavy year of completions

At the same time, new homes kept arriving. According to the DLD register, seven Dubai Hills projects with 2,295 units reached 100 percent completion between January and July 2026. That is more than in any full year since 2022, and more than the 1,711 units in all of 2025.

New leases show the effect. In my lease sample, new leases in buildings completed since 2024 rose from 40 in Q1 2025 to 301 in July and August 2026 alone. Brand-new flats now compete for the same tenants and buyers as older ones.

Where Dubai Hills prices fell, and where they held

The fall did not hit every home equally. To see where it landed, I compared each group’s prices from April to August 2026 with October 2025 to March 2026. The model holds building, bedrooms and size equal.

This comparison uses a six-month average as the starting point, not the peak month. That is why the all-apartment figure here is 3.7 percent, not 5.7 percent.

Group	Change (estimate)	Likely range (95%)	Sales before / after
All apartments	−3.7%	−5.1% to −2.3%	558 / 343
One-bedroom	−3.1%	−5.1% to −1.0%	244 / 166
Two-bedroom	−6.5%	−8.6% to −4.3%	227 / 139
Three-bedroom	−0.5%	−3.8% to +3.0%	87 / 38
Buildings completed 2019 to 2023	−6.5%	−8.8% to −4.1%	221 / 108
Buildings completed 2024 to 2026	−0.9%	−2.7% to +0.9%	287 / 198
Villas and townhouses	−7.5%	−11.1% to −3.8%	162 / 95
Off-plan apartment resales (priced)	−3.7%	−7.1% to −0.2%	115 / 47

Older Dubai Hills buildings took the biggest price cut

The clearest split is by building age. Apartments in buildings completed between 2019 and 2023 fell 6.5 percent. By contrast, buildings completed since 2024 sat close to their earlier level. The gap between the two groups is about 6 points, and it is too large to be chance.

I also tested other starting points. For older buildings, the fall stays between 6.5 and 6.8 percent on every one. Newer buildings did rise in early 2026, and they have since given that back. Against January to March 2026 alone, they are 4.4 percent lower. Against the past year, they are flat.

Older two-bedroom flats fell furthest, by 9.3 percent. Meanwhile, one-bedroom flats in newer buildings barely moved.

Why older buildings, and why now

My reading of the evidence is simple. Before the fall, older buildings sold for only about 5 percent less per square foot than newer ones. The medians were AED 2,383 and AED 2,504 from October 2025 to March 2026. So when a brand-new flat costs little more, the older flat has to get cheaper to sell.

Buyers also pulled back most in older buildings. In my sample, their resales fell from 182 in Q2 2025 to 65 in Q2 2026, while newer buildings held steady at 129 and 123. Sellers there who needed a deal had to cut.

Dubai Hills villa prices fell too

Villas were not safe either. On my figures, villa and townhouse prices fell 7.5 percent. ValuStrat also put Dubai Hills Estate villa values 6.8 percent lower over the year in August 2026. Cushman & Wakefield put Dubai Hills villa prices down 5 percent in Q2 2026. The villa sample is small, so treat the exact size with care.

Dubai Hills sales volumes: fewer deals, and a partial rebound

Prices only tell half the story. The number of sales shows how many buyers are still willing to act. These counts cover individual resales on the DLD register through 13 September 2026, with part-share transfers removed.

How many homes sold

From April to August 2026, 450 apartments and 100 villas and townhouses changed hands on resale. In the same months of 2025, the figures were 557 and 157. So apartment resales fell 19 percent, and villa resales fell 36 percent.

The worst month was May 2026, with just 48 apartment resales. After that, deals partly came back. July and August 2026 saw 218 apartment resales, against 166 in the same two months of 2025. However, summer 2025 was a weak base, and the 2026 summer still ran below January and February 2026. Early September ran slightly ahead of last year, with 48 apartment resales against 43.

The rebound was narrow. Newer buildings and ready flats drove all of it. Older buildings, off-plan resales and villas still sold less than in July and August 2025.

Where buyers went, and where they stayed away

The split matches the price story.

Apartment resales, April to August	2025	2026	Change
Buildings completed 2019 to 2023	258	114	−56%
Buildings completed 2024 to 2026	196	217	+11%
Ready apartments (all buildings)	322	336	+4%
Off-plan apartment resales	235	114	−51%
Villas and townhouses	157	100	−36%

Buyers still bought ready, newer flats. However, they walked away from older buildings and from off-plan resales. That is why prices held in one group and fell in the others.

Dubai Hills listings: how many homes are for sale, and how long they stay

Listings show the other side of the market: how many sellers are waiting. I compared two full pulls of Property Finder sale listings, on 26 August and 14 September 2026.

How many homes are for sale

On 14 September, Dubai Hills carried 2,695 sale listings, down from 3,082 nineteen days earlier. Many homes appear more than once, so I also removed repeat ads for the same building, bedroom count, size and price. On that basis, the count fell from about 2,600 to about 2,320. Every segment shrank between the two dates, but two snapshots 19 days apart are not a trend.

Even so, Dubai Hills still takes a large slice of Dubai’s listings. According to Property Monitor, the estate held about 2.5 percent of Dubai sale listings from June to August 2026, up from 2.1 percent in late February. By contrast, its share of Dubai sales stood at 1.4 percent in late August. In other words, the estate has more homes on offer than its share of buyers.

How long it would take to sell them

A simple test is months of supply: the ads on offer divided by the monthly pace of resales since April.

Segment	Resale ads, 14 Sep	Resales a month, Apr to Aug	Months of supply
All apartments	1,732	90.0	19.2
Newer buildings (completed 2024 to 2026)	510	43.4	11.8
Ready apartments	867	67.2	12.9
Older buildings (completed 2019 to 2023)	393	22.8	17.2
Villas and townhouses	443	20.0	22.1
Off-plan apartment resales	863	22.8	37.9

Treat these as rough guides. Some ads are duplicates the filter missed, and some sellers are only testing the market. Still, the ranking is clear. Newer buildings are the tightest, and their ready flats alone carry about 9 months of supply (338 ads, 37.6 sales a month). By contrast, off-plan resales carry more than three years of supply at the current pace.

How long listings stay

Portal dates can mislead you here. Agents often delete an ad and post it again, which resets the “listed” date. Between the two pulls, 1,131 ads disappeared while the same building, bedroom count and size stayed on offer under a different reference, mostly re-posts. So a listing that says “added two weeks ago” may have been on sale for months.

A cleaner test is what happened to the ads over 19 days:

In other words, about 89 percent of the ads, or the same type of home, were still advertised 19 days later.

How far Dubai Hills asking prices sit above real sales

For about 1,230 home types I could match across both pulls, 19.3 percent cut the price, by a median of 4.7 percent. Another 10.0 percent raised it. The rest held.

Asking prices still sit well above recent sales. For ready flats, I compared the median ask on 14 September with the median registered resale from April to August.

Ready apartments	Median ask (AED per sq ft)	Median sold (AED per sq ft)	Gap
Older buildings, one-bedroom	2,435	2,310	+5.4%
Older buildings, two-bedroom	2,433	2,185	+11.3%
Older buildings, three-bedroom	2,676	2,233	+19.9%
Newer buildings, one-bedroom	2,402	2,271	+5.8%
Newer buildings, two-bedroom	2,434	2,293	+6.1%
Newer buildings, three-bedroom	2,737	2,543	+7.6%

The gaps are mostly widest in older buildings, where prices fell most. Many sellers there still ask for yesterday’s price, while buyers pay less. Some sold samples are small, such as 16 older three-bedroom sales, so read the exact gaps with care.

Dubai Hills price per square foot: where each building sits

The same model also measures each building. The table shows how far each completed building sat above or below the estate average. It covers January 2024 to August 2026. It also holds bedrooms, size and month equal.

Building (completed, DLD register)	Position vs estate average (estimate)	Resales used (n)
Ellington House	+23.3%	79
Mulberry at Park Heights	+23.0%	189
Ellington House 2	+21.7%	90
Acacia at Park Heights	+16.8%	129
Golf Suites	+9.7%	56
399 Hills Park B	+8.6%	27
Lime Gardens	+5.7%	104
Park Ridge	+5.6%	280
Park Field	+4.8%	103
Elvira	+3.9%	209
Golf Residences by Fortimo	+1.9%	43
Parkside Views	+1.0%	47
Park Horizon	0.0%	112
Golf Grand	−4.0%	39
Park Point	−7.1%	108
Hills Park	−8.8%	128
Socio	−9.6%	336
Park Heights 1	−9.8%	99
Park Heights 2	−11.1%	189
Collective 2.0	−12.3%	127
Collective	−12.8%	146
Golf Ville	−13.3%	155

How to read the table

Each figure is a model estimate, not a price. For example, a figure of +5.0% would mean a building’s homes sold for about 5 percent more per square foot than a similar home elsewhere in the estate.

However, the model cannot see floor, view, layout or condition. So treat each figure as the building’s typical level, not your unit’s value. I also left out buildings with fewer than 20 resales, because their figures move too much.

Why a position is not a verdict

A higher position does not make a building a better buy. Buyers pay more for some buildings for clear reasons, such as location, age or finish. Likewise, a lower position can simply mean a lower entry price. For a full framework, see how to review real estate projects.

How to check a Dubai Hills asking price in five minutes

You can use the index to bring an old sale up to date. This check takes about five minutes.

The three steps

1. Find a real sale. On DXB Interact, look up a registered sale of a similar home in the same building. Match the bedrooms and a similar size. Then note the month.
2. Update it. Divide today’s index by the index for that month. Then multiply the old price by the result.
3. Compare. Put the updated price next to the asking price. If the gap is large, ask what explains it, such as a better view or a higher floor.

A worked example

Here is an example with made-up numbers. Say a similar flat sold for AED 2,000,000 in January 2026, when the index stood at 97.9. In August 2026, the index stood at 94.3.

So the sum is 2,000,000 × 94.3 ÷ 97.9. That gives about AED 1,926,000. An ask of AED 2,200,000 would then sit about 14 percent above the updated sale.

The monthly index

Use this table for step two. March 2026 equals 100.

Month	Index	Month	Index
Jan 2025	91.0	Nov 2025	95.6
Feb 2025	90.8	Dec 2025	94.9
Mar 2025	92.0	Jan 2026	97.9
Apr 2025	92.8	Feb 2026	98.0
May 2025	92.2	Mar 2026	100.0
Jun 2025	93.8	Apr 2026	93.0
Jul 2025	94.8	May 2026	93.5
Aug 2025	95.3	Jun 2026	91.9
Sep 2025	94.4	Jul 2026	93.0
Oct 2025	94.2	Aug 2026	94.3

Each month in this table rests on 40 to 116 sales. Because of that, single months are noisy. Treat the result as a guide, not a final number. For a wider checklist, read how to tell if a Dubai property is a good deal.

Use the right yardstick

Never compare 2026 prices with an all-time average. The median across all Dubai Hills Estate sales since 2014 is AED 1,804 per sq ft. That figure mixes every property type, developer sales and old launch prices, so it makes every 2026 price look high.

Instead, use a recent year. In 2024, the median across all registered sales in the estate was AED 2,239 per sq ft, across all property types.

Want to see how your building’s recent sales and listings compare with the index before you make an offer or set a price? Send me the building and the bedroom count, and I will walk you through the three steps.

Two traps in Dubai Hills price data

Any honest price figure for Dubai Hills needs two filters. Without them, the numbers can mislead you badly.

Trap 1: part-share transfers

Some DLD records appear to cover a share of a flat, not the whole flat. These records show a full flat size next to a tiny price. For example, one July 2026 record shows a 474 sq ft flat at AED 2,552.

My rule removes any individual sale below 55 percent of the middle price per square foot for the same building and property type. Across all years, the rule removes 136 apartment records. Within the index window, it removes 49.

The effect is large. In July 2026, the average price per square foot was AED 2,045 with those records included (n 122). Without the 12 part-share records, the average was AED 2,263.

Trap 2: off-plan resales at exactly the original price

In practice, some off-plan resales show exactly the price the first buyer paid the developer. That figure often reflects the fee basis, so it does not prove the price paid. I explain how this works in the Mina Rashid name-transfer article.

This index leaves those records out, which removes 224 records from the window.

Where the second trap shows up most

The pattern is strong in projects still under construction. In the seven projects listed below, each with ten or more off-plan resales, 49 to 88 percent of resales showed exactly the original price. By contrast, completed homes show the pattern rarely: 15 of 2,468 resales since 2024 (0.6 percent).

These are the projects under construction with ten or more off-plan resales, taken from the DLD register.

Project	DLD number	Units	Registered	Last published inspection
Greenside Residence	2705	490	22 Jun 2023	87.01% on 4 Jun 2026
Parkside Hills	2741	370	18 Aug 2023	68.29% on 7 May 2026
Club Drive	2769	529	25 Sep 2023	75.08% on 4 May 2026
Park Lane	2775	854	10 Oct 2023	55.39% on 22 May 2026
Parkland	3139	209	12 Jul 2024	50.02% on 22 Jun 2026
Club Place	3197	473	26 Jul 2024	68.82% on 16 Jun 2026
Golf Hillside	3237	185	3 Sep 2024	65.78% on 11 Aug 2026

If you are choosing between off-plan and ready homes, read off-plan vs ready properties in Dubai and what to know before buying off-plan in Dubai. For one project in this table, see my Golf Hillside launch review.

Dubai Hills market 2026: which source answers which question

Different reports give different numbers. Most of the gap comes from what each one measures, not from errors.

What each source measures

• ValuStrat Price Index values a fixed set of homes each month, so it does not rely on sales. For June 2026, it reported Dubai apartments down 0.6 percent in the month and 3 percent over the year. Its Dubai Hills Estate figure covers villas, which were down 2.8 percent over the year.
• Savills reports on the whole Dubai market each quarter. For Q2 2026, it put Dubai apartments at AED 1,960 per sq ft, about 4 percent below Q1. It also named Dubai Hills Estate among areas under greater price pressure. In addition, its review of more than 500 like-for-like deals pointed to a 5 to 7 percent drop in the quarter.
• Bayut is a property portal. On 26 August 2026, its Dubai Hills market page showed average prices of AED 1,735,000 for a one-bedroom and AED 2,737,000 for a two-bedroom. These are portal figures, so treat them as directional. Listing prices show what sellers want, not what buyers paid.
• DXB Interact shows registered DLD sales, one by one. It is the source for this index and for the five-minute check.

A simple quarterly routine

My routine takes three steps. First, check DXB Interact for your building’s latest sales. Next, check ValuStrat for the direction of the wider market. Then treat asking prices as a ceiling to test, not as evidence.

What the future looks like for Dubai Hills prices and sales

I do not publish a price forecast. None of the first-tier sources I found has published a new number since the war began either. Instead, here is what the evidence says about the next two years.

What the experts say

Fitch said on 2 April 2026 that the conflict would bring “a larger correction than forecast” for UAE real estate. Cushman & Wakefield expects “further moderation as transaction volumes remain subdued”. It also expects established end-user communities to stay “relatively resilient”. Across Dubai, it counts about 32,000 more homes due in the second half of 2026.

What the Dubai Hills supply calendar says

The DLD register lists 24 active Dubai Hills projects with 9,052 units, after removing one project the data places in MBR City rather than Dubai Hills. For scale, Property Monitor counts about 25,300 homes in the estate today. Expected completion dates published on property portals put most of the new homes late. These dates are portal-sourced, so treat them as directional:

Expected completion (portal-sourced)	Projects	Units
2026	1	279
2027	6	1,036
2028	7	3,582
2029	9	4,045
No date published (70 percent built, delayed)	1	110

One 2026 date belongs to a project only 2.79 percent built, so real dates will shift. Either way, 85 percent of the dated units are due in 2028 and 2029. So the biggest supply test for Dubai Hills prices is still ahead. Meanwhile, many off-plan owners are already trying to sell: 863 off-plan resale ads were live on 14 September.

My reading, segment by segment

This is a reading of the evidence, not a prediction.

Three paths for Dubai Hills prices

Path	What you would see first
Prices steady	Resales run above last year for several quarters, listings fall, and fewer ads need price cuts
Slow drift lower	Resales flatten while listings stay near today’s level, and older buildings keep cutting
A second leg down	A new regional shock, or resales fall again while listings pile up ahead of the 2027 to 2029 completions

Over the summer, newer buildings came closest to the first path, with more deals than a year earlier. Older buildings, villas and off-plan resales have not shown that yet.

Five signals to check each quarter

1. Resales: the number of individual resales, against the same quarter a year earlier.
2. Listings: the number of unique sale ads, and months of supply.
3. Price cuts: the share of ads that cut their price.
4. Completions: which projects reach 100 percent on the DLD register.
5. The wider market: the monthly change in the ValuStrat index.

What to do now

The right move depends on your position. Here is how the evidence applies.

If you are buying at today’s Dubai Hills prices

If you are selling

Dubai Hills price index: how I built it

This section explains the method in plain terms.

Data and filters

• Data: DLD apartment sales in Dubai Hills Estate, as published on DXB Interact, from January 2024 to 26 August 2026.
• Kept: whole-unit resales by individual sellers, each with a bedroom count and a size.
• Removed: 49 part-share records, 224 off-plan resales at exactly the original price and 202 records with no size or bedroom count. I also dropped buildings with fewer than ten resales.

The model

The model explains the log of price per square foot using four things: building, bedrooms, the log of size and the month. The month part becomes the index.

In total, the sample holds 3,072 resales across 32 buildings. Together, the four factors explain 48 percent of the spread in price per square foot.

Checks I ran

I tested 24 versions with different start dates and building groups. March 2026 was the peak in every version. Across them, the fall from the peak ranged from 5.3 to 6.7 percent.

A repeat-sales approach is another way to track prices. I used one in the Dubai apartment resale record.

What the index cannot tell you

The index has three limits. First, it does not forecast, and the line stops at August 2026. Second, it does not value a single flat. Third, single months rest on small samples, so the ranges above matter.

Frequently Asked Questions

Talk it through

I am Fahad Al Kuwari, buyer’s consultant for Dubai Hills Estate. If you are buying or selling, I can help you test Dubai Hills Estate property prices against registered sales. You can reach me through fahadalkuwari.com. For the wider picture, start with my Dubai real estate investment guide.