My calls · Dubai
My calls, and what happened.
When I make a call in an article, it goes on this page with the date I made it. When the official data comes in, I mark it right, partly right or wrong. Misses stay on the page.
These are estimates, not promises. Use them to judge how I think. Then check the numbers yourself.
How this page works
Dated, saved, and never rewritten.
This page starts with my May 2026 articles. My older pieces were written before I used DLD data, and I am reviewing them.
Dated
Every call shows the day I made it and the article it came from.
Saved outside my site
Each article was saved on archive.org on 14 November 2026. Open that copy and see the call as I first wrote it.
Never rewritten
If my view changes, I add a dated note under the original line. The original stays.
The calls
18 calls, one settled so far.
I update this page every quarter, when new DLD data comes out.
Already settled
| Call | Made | Check by | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Six Senses The Palm hotel opens between Q4 2026 and 2027. What happened: Six Senses opened bookings in February 2026 for stays from 1 September 2026. The date was public before I wrote, and I missed it. | May to Jul 2026 | Settled | Wrong |
Due now or by early 2027
| Call | Made | Check by | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Six Senses Residences The Palm hands over in Q3 2026. | 14 Jun 2026 | Now | Open |
| Sobha Seahaven Tower A will not finish in 2026. It was 37% built. | 17 Sep 2026 | Jan 2027 | Open |
| Dubai Hills: Greenside and Club Drive reach 100% in late 2026, with keys about two months later. | 2 Oct 2026 | Q1 2027 | Open |
Due in 2027
| Call | Made | Check by | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai Hills: about 5,000 homes get keys in 2027. The peak comes in 2028, at about 5,500. | 2 Oct 2026 | Jan 2029 | Open |
| Dubai Hills new towers: plan on 5 to 7 months to find a tenant for a typical flat. | 15 Oct 2026 | Q4 2027 | Open |
| Dubai Harbour: Address Residences The Bay gets keys around July 2027, Address Bayview around November 2027, and Seapoint in mid 2028. | 10 Oct 2026 | Q3 2028 | Open |
| The Oasis: Palmiera finishes construction around May 2027. Palmiera 2 and 3 finish around July to August 2027. | 13 Nov 2026 | Q4 2027 | Open |
| Palm Jebel Ali: resale prices stay flat to about mid 2027, and Fronds K to P hold better than the rest. | 12 Nov 2026 | Q3 2027 | Open |
| Dubai offices: citywide rents flatten, vacancy rises from 7.3%, and prime holds. | 6 Aug 2026 | End 2027 | Open |
Due in 2028 and later
| Call | Made | Check by | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai prices to 2028, my base case: investor apartments lose another 5% to 10%, while prime holds or edges up. | 17 Oct 2026 | End 2028 | Open |
| Sobha Seahaven: keys in late 2028 to early 2029, not August 2027. | 17 Sep 2026 | Q1 2029 | Open |
| Mina Rashid: fewer than the 1,925 homes due in 2028 get keys that year. | 14 Aug 2026 | Q1 2029 | Open |
| Sobha Solis: keys in 2029, with late 2028 as the best case. Resales before keys sell at launch price or a little under. (Added in an update to an older article.) | 22 Oct 2026 | End 2029 | Open |
| Dubai Creek Harbour: more than 5,000 new homes arrive in 2029 and 2030. | 22 Jul 2026 | End 2030 | Open |
| Hudayriyat: at the pace measured so far, completion lands around June 2031. | 25 Aug 2026 | Q3 2031 | Open |
| Six Senses Signature Villas: AED 150 million to AED 165 million by 2028 to 2031. | 13 May 2026 | End 2031 | Open |
| Gold Line metro: 9 September 2032 is a credible opening date. | 18 Aug 2026 | Sep 2032 | Open |
Your decision
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